Express Entry Outlook for September 2025

As Canada fine-tunes its immigration system to balance labor shortages, demographic pressures, and global competition for talent, Express Entry continues to serve as a leading pathway to permanent residency (PR) for skilled workers.

With the last draw held on August 19, 2025, anticipation is building for the next round of Invitations to Apply (ITAs). Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has maintained its focus on category-based selections (CBS), aiming to fill urgent labor market needs in healthcare, education, trades, and French language proficiency.

This article reviews recent trends, IRCC’s 2025 priorities, and expert predictions to help applicants prepare for September draws.

Express Entry Trends So Far in 2025

Canada’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan targets around 395,000 PR admissions this year, with many ITAs issued in late 2025 feeding into 2026 admissions due to standard six-month processing timelines.

So far in 2025, IRCC has conducted 32 draws, issuing 55,820 ITAs across three streams: PNP, CEC, and CBS.

• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): 192–825 ITAs per round, CRS cutoffs 667–802.
  
  
• Canadian Experience Class (CEC): 500–4,000 ITAs, CRS 518–547.
  
  
• French Category: 2,500–7,500 ITAs, CRS 379–481. Already exceeded its 18,500 target with 21,000 ITAs issued.
  
  
• Healthcare Category: 500–4,000 ITAs, CRS 470–510. Nearing 8,000 ITAs.
  
  
• Education Category: 1,000 ITAs, CRS 479.
  
  
• Trades: Still unused, despite an allocation of ~3,300 ITAs.

Draw patterns in 2025:

• Q1: Strong French focus.
• Q2: PNP-heavy, with healthcare and education categories added.
  
  
• Q3 (June–August): More healthcare, CEC, and PNP activity, with a notable drop in CRS to 470 in the August 19 healthcare draw.

What to Expect in September 2025

Given the last draw was on August 19, the next one is expected shortly after the Labour Day holiday (September 2–3).

A high-probability scenario is the long-awaited Trades Category draw, since no ITAs have been issued yet this year despite an official quota of ~3,300. Occupations likely include carpenters, electricians, plumbers, welders, and cooks (NOC 72310, 72410, 72300, 72106, 63200).

• Predicted ITAs: 3,000–4,000
  
  
• Predicted CRS cutoff: 450–470, mirroring healthcare’s trend of declining scores in larger draws
  
  

Other likely draws for September include:

• Healthcare: 1,000–2,000 ITAs, CRS ~470.
  
  
• Education: 1,000+ ITAs, CRS ~480.
  
  
• CEC: Mid-500s (518–547), with possible inclusion in September rounds.
  
  
• PNP: Small rounds (200–300 ITAs, CRS 750+).

In total, September may see 4–5 draws with up to 8,000 ITAs issued.

How Candidates Can Prepare

• Maximize CRS: Achieve CLB 9+ in IELTS/TEF, secure Educational Credential Assessments (ECAs).
  
  
• Leverage PNPs: Provincial nominations add 600 points instantly.
  
  
• Stay Ready: Ensure NOC codes align with eligible occupations, especially for trades.

For example, a welder with a CRS score of 460 would likely be competitive if a trades draw occurs.

 A Promising Month Ahead

September 2025 is shaping up to be pivotal, with overdue trades draws expected alongside continued action in healthcare, education, and CEC. By optimizing their profiles and aligning with IRCC’s labor market priorities, candidates can significantly boost their chances of receiving an ITA this month.